Polymarket 每日洞察

2026-06-02

🔥 今日精選

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

買入 NO $0.67優勢 3.5%信心 75%

Recent news indicates a dimming of prospects for a US-Iran nuclear deal by the deadline, with the White House stance and former President Trump's 'no…

📝 每日市場敘事

2026年6月2日 Polymarket 市場摘要
整體市場趨勢顯示，分析師普遍採取謹慎態度，持有（HOLD）建議佔絕大多數，顯示市場對當前預測缺乏明確的看漲動能。買入（BUY_YES）建議為零，而賣出（BUY_NO）建議則有9筆，這可能反映了對某些事件結果的預期偏向負面。
熱門類別方面，其他類別的分析數量最多，達到12筆，顯示市場對非加密貨幣相關事件的關注度較高。加密貨幣類別僅有1筆分析。

分析 77 個市場，9 個可執行機會

📊 市場概覽

活躍市場

100

24h 成交量

$90.9M

加密市場情緒

偏空

體育 62 個 · $68.6M政治 19 個 · $12.8M其他 12 個 · $7.1M經濟 4 個 · $1.4M加密貨幣 3 個 · $1.0M

📈 價格異動 & 成交量排行

價格變動

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?-5.0%34% → 28%AI看跌

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end…-4.0%20% → 16%

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?+3.0%12% → 14%

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?+1.5%3% → 5%

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extensi…+1.0%56% → 57%

成交量排行

Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.0M

Knicks vs. Spurs$8.1M

Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electi…$3.6M

Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.0M

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Elec…$2.3M

新上架市場

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ETYES $0.50[加密貨幣]

Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM …YES $0.50[經濟]

XRP Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ETYES $0.50[加密貨幣]

Solana Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ETYES $0.50[加密貨幣]

Solana Up or Down - June 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ETYES $0.50[加密貨幣]

🏆 AI 預測績效

勝率

88.0%

校準分數

0.095

已結算

4373

超越基準

+1.7%

其他 88% (3702)加密貨幣 88% (592)科技 96% (51)娛樂 100% (28)

📋 持倉快照

活躍持倉

總投入

$27

未實現損益

$-6 (-21.3%)

✅ 無風險警報